2021 Virginia gubernatorial election
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| Turnout | 55.3%  7.7 | ||||||||||||||||
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 County and independent city results Youngkin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% McAuliffe: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Virginia |
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The 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election happened on November 2, 2021, to elect the next governor of Virginia. Incumbent Governor Ralph Northam is unable to run, as the Constitution of Virginia does not allow terms to be served in a row.
The Democratic Party chose previous Governor Terry McAuliffe, and the Republican Party chose Glenn Youngkin. Teacher Princess Blanding ran under the new Liberation Party.
In the general election on November 2, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the election over Democrat and former Governor Terry McAuliffe, making him the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia since 2009.[2]
Democratic primary election
[change | change source]Candidates
[change | change source]Chosen
[change | change source]- Terry McAuliffe, previous governor of Virginia (2014-2018).
Lost in primary election
[change | change source]- Jennifer Carroll Foy, previous state delegate for the 2nd house district (2018-2020).
- Lee J. Carter, state delegate for the 50th house district.
- Justin Fairfax, Lieutenant governor of Virginia.
- Jennifer McClellan, state senator for the 9th senate district, previous state delegate for the 71st district (2006-2017).
Withdrew
[change | change source]- Mark Herring, attorney general of Virginia and previous state senator for the 33rd district (2006-2014).
Polling
[change | change source]Graph
[change | change source]| Source | Date(s) | Participants[a] | Possible % of error |
Jennifer Carroll Foy |
Lee Carter |
Justin Fairfax |
Terry McAuliffe |
Jennifer McClellan |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College | May 24 – June 1, 2021 | 637 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 11% | 1% | 5% | 49% | 9% | 0% | 24% |
| Christopher Newport University | April 11–20, 2021 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 5% | 1% | 8% | 47% | 6% | 2% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 12–13, 2021 | 526 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 42% | 8% | – | 29% |
| Christopher Newport University | January 31 – February 14, 2021 | 488 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 4% | 1% | 12% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 54% |
| YouGov Blue (D) | February 6–11, 2021 | 235 (RV) | ± 7.4% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 30% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[A] | January 12–20, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 7% | – | 14% | 42% | 6% | – | 30% |
| Expedition Strategies (D)[B] | December 2020 | – (LV) | – | 5% | – | 16% | 32% | 8% | – | 38% |
Results
[change | change source]
McAuliffe
- McAuliffe—80–90%
- McAuliffe—70–80%
- McAuliffe—60–70%
- McAuliffe—50–60%
- McAuliffe—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Terry McAuliffe | 307,367 | 62.10% | |
| Democratic | Jennifer Carroll Foy | 98,052 | 19.81% | |
| Democratic | Jennifer McClellan | 58,213 | 11.76% | |
| Democratic | Justin Fairfax | 17,606 | 3.56% | |
| Democratic | Lee J. Carter | 13,694 | 2.77% | |
| Total votes | 494,932 | 100.00% | ||
Republican convention election
[change | change source]A convention is a different way to choose a person for an election. This Republican convention used a method of voting called instant-runoff voting to choose a person for the general election.
The Republican Party of Virginia chose a convention on December 5, 2020 with a vote. The vote was 41 to 28.[4] This decision started debates internally. At first, state senator Amanda Chase was going to run as an independent, but decided to run in the convention.[5]
Candidates
[change | change source]Chosen at convention
[change | change source]- Glenn Youngkin, former co-CEO of The Carlyle Group.
Lost at convention
[change | change source]- Amanda Chase, state senator for the 11th senate district.
- Kirk Cox, state delegate for the 66th house district, and previous Speaker of Virginia House of Delegates (2018-2020).
- Sergio de la Peña, previous U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs.
- Peter Doran, previous CEO.
- Octavia Johnson, previous sheriff of Roanoke City (2006-2013).
- Pete Snyder, previous candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia in 2013.
Polling
[change | change source]Graph
[change | change source]- Without convention polling
Primary polling
[change | change source]| Source | Date(s) | Participants[a] | Possible % of error |
Amanda Chase |
Kirk Cox |
Sergio de la Peña |
Peter Doran |
Octavia Johnson |
Pete Snyder |
Glenn Youngkin |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) | May 5–6, 2021 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 13% | 25% | – | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[C] | April 2021 | 695 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 16% | 21% | – | 30% |
| Christopher Newport University | January 31 – February 14, 2021 | 370 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 17% | 10% | – | – | – | – | 3% | – | 55% |
| YouGov Blue (D) | February 6–11, 2021 | 170 (RV) | ± 8.6% | 24% | 7% | 1% | – | – | 13% | 5% | 0% | 54% |
Convention polling
[change | change source]| Source | Date(s) | Participants[a] | Possible % of error |
Amanda Chase |
Kirk Cox |
Pete Snyder |
Glenn Youngkin |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[D] | April 29 – May 3, 2021 | 3,896 (LV) | ± 1.6% | 10% | 10% | 26% | 38% | 13% | 3% |
Youngkin
- Youngkin—80–90%
- Youngkin—70–80%
- Youngkin—60–70%
- Youngkin—50–60%
Tie
- Tie—50%
Snyder
- Snyder—50–60%
- Snyder—60–70%
- Snyder—70–80%
- Snyder—>90%
Results
[change | change source]
| Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee[6] | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | ||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |
| Glenn Youngkin | 4131.80 | 32.9% | 4140.55 | 33.0% | 4148.91 | 33.0% | 4331.93 | 34.5% | 5311.43 | 42.3% | 6869.22 | 54.7% |
| Pete Snyder | 3241.61 | 25.8% | 3243.84 | 25.8% | 3249.71 | 25.9% | 3502.91 | 27.9% | 4078.25 | 32.5% | 5684.78 | 45.3% |
| Amanda Chase | 2605.89 | 20.8% | 2611.54 | 20.8% | 2619.83 | 20.9% | 2859.39 | 22.8% | 3164.32 | 25.2% | Lost | |
| Kirk Cox | 1693.58 | 13.5% | 1698.13 | 13.5% | 1705.90 | 13.6% | 1859.77 | 14.8% | Lost | |||
| Sergio de la Peña | 805.35 | 6.4% | 812.44 | 6.5% | 829.65 | 6.6% | Lost | |||||
| Peter Doran | 42.28 | 0.3% | 47.50 | 0.4% | Lost | |||||||
| Octavia Johnson | 33.48 | 0.3% | Lost | |||||||||
General election
[change | change source]Predictions
[change | change source]- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Terry McAuliffe (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Other/Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | October 20–31, 2021 | November 1, 2021 | 46.8% | 48.5% | 4.8% | Youngkin +1.7% |
| FiveThirtyEight | August 1 – November 1, 2021 | November 1, 2021 | 47.0% | 47.9% | 5.1% | Youngkin +1.0% |
| Average | 46.9% | 48.2% | 5.0% | Youngkin +1.4% | ||
Polling
[change | change source]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Terry McAuliffe (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Princess Blanding (Lib.) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | October 31 – November 1, 2021 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 48% | 2% | – | 3% |
| Targoz Market Research | October 26 – November 1, 2021 | 747 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 47% | – | – | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 29–31, 2021 | 1,081 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | – | 2% | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived 2022-04-17 at the Wayback Machine | October 27–30, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 2% | – | 6% |
| Echelon Insights Archived 2021-10-29 at the Wayback Machine | October 27–29, 2021 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 2% | – | 4% |
| Roanoke College | October 14–28, 2021 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Fox News | October 24–27, 2021 | 1,212 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 3% |
| 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 53% | – | 1% | 1% | ||
| Washington Post/Schar School Archived 2021-10-29 at the Wayback Machine | October 20–26, 2021 | 1,107 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | 3% | 2%[c] | 3% |
| 49% | 45% | – | 3%[d] | 4% | ||||
| 918 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 1% | 0%[e] | 2% | ||
| 49% | 48% | – | 0%[f] | 2% | ||||
| Christopher Newport University | October 17–25, 2021 | 944 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 1% | – | 1% |
| Suffolk University | October 21–24, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 2% | – | 7% |
| Emerson College | October 22–23, 2021 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 48% | 1% | – | 3% |
| co/efficient (R)[E] | October 20–21, 2021 | 785 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 47% | 5% | – | 5% |
| Cygnal (R) | October 19–21, 2021 | 816 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 48% | 1% | – | 3% |
| KAConsulting LLC (R)[F] | October 18–21, 2021 | 661 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 43% | – | 1% | 15% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | October 9–21, 2021 | 722 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 41% | 38% | – | 10% | 11% |
| Monmouth University | October 16–19, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 2% | 7% |
| 1,005 (LV)[g] | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | |||
| 1,005 (LV)[h] | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
| Data for Progress (D) | October 4–15, 2021 | 1,589 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 2% | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 11–13, 2021 | 1,095 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 3% |
| Fox News | October 10–13, 2021 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 41% | – | 2% | 5% |
| 726 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | ||
| Schoen Cooperman Research (D) | October 9–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 43% | – | 0% | 10% |
| YouGov/CBS News | October 4–11, 2021 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 47% | – | 2% | 0% |
| Christopher Newport University | September 27 – October 6, 2021 | 802 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 45% | 1% | – | 5% |
| Emerson College | October 1–3, 2021 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% |
| Fox News | September 26–29, 2021 | 901 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 1% | 7% |
| Roanoke College | September 12–26, 2021 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Monmouth University | September 22–26, 2021 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | – | 2% | 8% |
| 801 (LV)[g] | 48% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
| 801 (LV)[h] | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | |||
| Global Strategy Group (D) Archived 2022-03-16 at the Wayback Machine | September 16–20, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
| KAConsulting LLC (R)[F] | September 17–19, 2021 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 42% | – | 1% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[G] | September 17–18, 2021 | 875 (V) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 42% | – | – | 13% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | September 7–15, 2021 | 731 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 43% | 34% | – | 10% | 13% |
| Emerson College | September 13–14, 2021 | 778 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 5% |
| University of Mary Washington | September 7–13, 2021 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 38% | 2% | 6%[i] | 11% |
| 885 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 41% | 2% | – | – | ||
| 528 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 48% | 2% | 2%[j] | 6% | ||
| Washington Post/Schar School Archived 2022-04-17 at the Wayback Machine | September 7–13, 2021 | 907 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | – | 3% | 4% |
| 728 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | ||
| WPA Intelligence (R)[H] | August 30 – September 2, 2021 | 734 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 48% | 3% | – | 4% |
| 48% | 48% | – | – | 4% | ||||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 26–29, 2021 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 2% | 5% |
| Monmouth University | August 24–29, 2021 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 42% | – | 2% | 9% |
| 802 (LV)[g] | 47% | 45% | – | – | – | |||
| 802 (LV)[h] | 49% | 42% | – | – | – | |||
| Christopher Newport University | August 15–23, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 41% | 3% | – | 6% |
| Change Research (D) | August 17–21, 2021 | 1,653 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 43% | 3% | – | 5% |
| Change Research (D)[I] | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,334 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
| Roanoke College | August 3–17, 2021 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 13% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | August 4–15, 2021 | 770 (RV) | ± 5.4% | 40% | 37% | – | 15% | 9% |
| ~747 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 40% | 37% | – | 14% | 9% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | August 8–9, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 45% | – | – | 8% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[H] | August 3–5, 2021 | 734 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 43% | 3% | – | 4% |
| 51% | 45% | – | – | 4% | ||||
| co/efficient (R)[J] | July 25–27, 2021 | 762 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 40% | 2% | – | 13% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 8–10, 2021 | 1,104 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | – | 4% | 4% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[K] | July 6–9, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 2% | 10% |
| JMC Analytics and Polling (R) | June 9–12, 2021 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 42% | – | – | 12% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[H] | June 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
Results
[change | change source]| 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election[7] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
| Republican | Glenn Youngkin | 1,663,596 | 50.57 | +5.60 | |
| Democratic | Terry McAuliffe | 1,600,116 | 48.64 | -5.26 | |
| Liberation | Princess Blanding | 23,125 | 0.70 | New party | |
| Write-in | 2,593 | 0.08 | +0.03 | ||
| Total votes | 3,289,403 | 100.00 | N/A | ||
| Turnout | |||||
| Registered electors | 5,951,368 | ||||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Related pages
[change | change source]Notes
[change | change source]- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered to vote
LV – likely to vote
V – unclear - ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ↑ Would not vote and None of these with 1%
- ↑ Neither with 2%, Would not vote with 1%
- ↑ Would not vote and None of these with 0%
- ↑ Would not vote and Neither with 0%
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Weighted toward more low-propensity voters
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Weighted toward fewer low-propensity voters
- ↑ None/Would not vote with 5%, other/write-in with 1%
- ↑ None/Would not vote and other/write-in with 1%
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Carroll Foy's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by McClellan's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Winsome Sears's campaign
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 This poll was sponsored by the Presidential Coalition
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 This poll was sponsored by Youngkin's campaign
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy – VA
- ↑ This poll was sponsored by the American Principles Project
References
[change | change source]- ↑ 2021 November General (Report). Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on 2022-04-12. Retrieved 2021-11-04.
- ↑ "LIVE COVERAGE: Youngkin wins in Virginia; New Jersey governor's race in dead heat". The Hill. November 2, 2021.
- ↑ "Virginia Primary Election Results". Archived from the original on 2021-06-09. Retrieved 2021-07-25.
- ↑ "RPV State Central Committee Meeting;Voted Convention for 2021;Live Updates – Bearing Drift". bearingdrift.com. Retrieved 2020-12-05.
- ↑ Oliver, Ned (2020-12-05). "Chase promises to run as independent for governor after Va. GOP opts for convention over primary". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved 2020-12-05.
- ↑ "Virginia GOP Convention, Governor Nominee Ranked Choice Voting Election Results Visualization". rcvis.com. RCVis. May 11, 2021.
- ↑ "2021 November General". results.elections.virginia.gov. Archived from the original on April 12, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2021.